Is Justin Gaethje the one to finally conquer Mt. Nurmagomedov?
This Saturday on October 24th, 2020, Justin Gaethje will likely face the toughest fight of his fighting career in Khabib Nurmagomedov for the undisputed 155 lbs championship of the UFC.
As exciting as this fight is, for a lot of folks, it is a bitter reminder of the fact that Justin Gaethje played spoilsport for what is arguably the biggest missed opportunity of MMA: Khabib vs. Tony. Earlier this year, Justin Gaethje fought Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 for the interim lightweight title and beat him via 5th round stoppage. This victory for Justin setup the fight against Khabib for all the marbles at 155 lbs. Khabib vs. Tony was billed as the two of the greatest UFC lightweight runs colliding against each other, and each time it was booked, it got bigger than the last time. The match-up offered the viewer a chance to see what Tony could do against the relentless ground game of Khabib. There were quite a few in the Tony Ferguson fan-club that believed that Tony, with his own dangerous ground-game and wicked combination of unlimited cardio and creative/pressure striking, would be the one to beat Khabib.
However, there was another quiet but growing subset of individuals who thought it was Justin Gaethje who would actually pose the toughest match-up for Khabib.
They had their reasons. Justin Gaethje is a highly credentialed wrestler, even if it never shows up in any of his fights. He has devastating leg kicks, relentless pressure, and has bricks for hands. Justin Gaethje that fought (and lost to) Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier was outdone by the two elite boxers who figured out a way to combat his relentless pressure striking. It must be noted however, that Justin was very much “in” those fights until the time he got out-struck by these two fighters. Since these fights, there has been a renaissance in his game. He is now known as ‘Justin Gaethje 2.0’, the guy who is smart about his offence and still can be devastating to anyone he fights. He is no longer the guy who takes two shots to land one of his own and be a part of the wars where he loses and gets knocked out. He is smart about his offence, and his new slightly-tempered-but-equally-deadly fighting style has resulted in first round victories over James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone, not to mention the fifth round stoppage against Tony Ferguson to capture the interim UFC lightweight championship.
Of course, none of these fighters has the ground-game that Khabib has, and it will be a different ball-game to see what Justin will be able to against the Khabib, who has done this to world-class fighters. Or has he?
A closer look at Khabib’s undefeated career gives you a little insight into why he is undefeated. He’s fought in the UFC 12 times. Two times in 2012 (one of which was a controversial decision against a really good fighter in Tibau), three times in 2013 (best among them being Pat Healy), one time in 2014 (against a still middle-class RDA), none in 2015, two times in 2016 (one against a new comer and one against Michael Johnson who reportedly tagged him), once in 2017 (against Edson Barboza), two times in 2018 (against Al Iaquinta on 1 day notice and Conor McGregor coming off of a two year lay-off), and once in 2019 (against a surging Dustin Poirier).
His best wins are against a still-not-a-prime RDA, a surging Dustin Poirier, and a Conor McGregor coming off of a two-year layoff.
A big portion of why Khabib is still undefeated is very likely that he just never had the strength of schedule that other fighters have had in the UFC. As an example, RDA himself has fought 20 times in the UFC since Khabib made his debut, as opposed to Khabib who has just fought 12 times. Even Justin Gaethje, who made his UFC debut a whole 5 and a half years after Khabib did, has already fought 7 times till now. It is very likely that had Khabib been an active fighter, he would have lost at least once. Another point of consideration derived from his inactivity is the quality of opposition that he has fought. If you include Edson Barboza, Khabib has fought a grand total of 4 top-5 quality fighters. All of these fighters themselves have been beaten a few times already, and the blue-print to beat them is already out there.
On the other hand, Justin Gaethje has only fought the best of the best during his tenure. The only ones you could take an exception are for his debut against Michael Johnson, and his fight against a surging James Vick. If you’re being really critical, you could also add Donald Cerrone (who was anyway in the top 5 at the time). Additionally, the people he has lost to, have only beaten him by being better boxers than him, something which Khabib is not. Additionally, Justin’s best win is Tony Ferguson who is arguably better than any of Khabib’s wins.
The keys to victory for Khabib have always been to take the fighter to the ground, preferably near the cage, and out-punch or submit them. This is where Justin Gaethje comes in. He has spent a total of 17 seconds on the ground in his entire UFC career. He can strike, and he can kick devastatingly. This fight will boil to down to whether Khabib will be able to execute his game-plan against Justin Gaethje. Let’s say that he is able to take Justin down. Will he be able to keep him there? What happens if Justin gets up, or if he is able to stuff all of Khabib’s takedowns (it only takes one takedown for Khabib to get you)? Will he have a plan B? What if Justin tags Khabib repeatedly to take advantage of Khabib’s rather poor boxing skills? What if Justin takes the legs from under Khabib with his powerful leg-kicks? Trevor Whitman, Justin’s coach, is a very smart man, and one wonders what game-plan he will come up with. Justin has publicly said that he is going to try to keep the fight at the center of the Octagon, and that he will scramble to get back up if taken down — a task easier said than done. It is no secret that if Khabib is not able to get this fight to the ground, he will get finished brutally. He just never had to worry about it so far during his fights with strikers of the caliber of Conor, Poirier, or Barboza. neither of them is an All-American like Justin though, and there is a possibility that Khabib will very likely need a plan B in this fight.
As much as everyone is right to assume a victory for Khabib (and already start to match-make for Khabib for his 30th fight), I believe that Justin may very well pull it off, and possibly stop Khabib inside three rounds. This is a pretty exciting fight, and one can’t wait for 24th October to come soon enough.
