UFC 263: The last dance of Demian Maia
14 years. 32 fights. That’s how long Demian Maia has been in the UFC, and competed at its highest level. I can’t remember the last time he wasn’t ranked. I’m positive that in the last 10 years, he has always been ranked in the top 15 of the divisions he competed.
He says this is the last fight on his contract and that he will likely retire after this. Whether that is retirement from the UFC, or all of MMA, is just something that time will tell. MMA retirements are like the ‘last cigarette’. One often ends up coming back to the vice. Will he end up boxing Jake Paul and cash out? I wouldn’t be surprised if that is something that happened after this. Maia has never been the best striker who competed in the UFC, and this would be right up Jake Paul’s alley.
Maia, however, has been one of the best grapplers to have ever competed in the UFC. Until Charles Oliveira overtook him for the most submission victories in the UFC and won the UFC championship, Demian was the gold-standard for submission grappling in MMA.
His initial 5 fight run since his debut was spectacular with all of them being submission victories. And then came the KO loss to Nate Marquardt, a rebound victory, a disappointing performance against Anderson Silva for the 185 lbs championship, a few more non-spectacular victories where he went away from his grappling, and post that, a decision to drop down to 170 lbs.
Dropping down to 170 lbs definitely extended his career. He was already 34 in a division as burgeoning as 185 in 2012, and with guys like Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold, Jacare followed by veterans such as Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva, Michael Bisping still waiting to get their shot in, it felt that his time was at the top wouldn’t last long, and he would have retired in the next 2–3 years. That he managed to last for another 9 years in the UFC after that, all the while still managing to be ranked in the top 15, is a testament to just how crucial this move was to prolonging his career.
No longer was he encumbered by trying to achieve mastery at striking, and relied on his excellent grappling skills to shine through. After 12 fights with 10 wins and 2 losses in this new division, with the latest 7 fight run coming in a situation where he was barely hit — Masvidal fight aside, he finally fought for the title. He should have fought for the title after beating Carlos Condit, who in many people’s eyes was the uncrowned champion after fighting Robbie Lawler in one the best title fights in UFC history. However, with Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson fighting the then-champion Tyron Woodley to a rare draw at the historic Madison Square Garden card at UFC 205, the rematch between the two welterweights was all but guaranteed, and Maia was left to defend his position in the queue against Jorge Masvidal, which was the one fight in his last run where he was hit substantially, despite winning the contest in a split decision.
Like the last time fought for the title at UFC 112, his title fight at UFC 214 was also universally panned by the critics, fans, and promoters alike, again with most of the blame going towards the champion, in this case — Tyron Woodley, who played it ridiculously safe in an attempt to neutralize his dangerous grappling. After the fight, a lot of the conversation was around how bad the performance of Woodley was, but an unspoken narrative was already accepted: Demian Maia will likely never fight for the title again.
His run post the title-fight at UFC 214 has been one that of a veteran gatekeeper: fighting all the up-and-comers. All of his losses have come to prospects who have either won the title (Kamaru Usman), or those who have fought for the title (Colby Covington, and Gilbert Burns). And he stopped Ben Askren, Anthony Rocco Martin, and Lyman Good from ever being considered seriously as a contender. He will attempt to do it one more time, against another rising contender in Belal Muhammad.
How this fight will play out is anybody’s guess. With Belal’s fighting style, I have my doubts about whether he would be able to finish Maia. Maia has been notoriously tough to finish, and has been stopped only by Nate Marquardt and Gilbert Burns. That’s two stoppage losses in 38 fight career. Additionally, I am not sure if Belal Muhammad is the kind of guy to have the pressure, cardio, and wrestling-heavy style of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, nor is he the type of guy to have an insane ground game like Gilbert Burns. I believe the best shot that Belal has is to adopt a really good striking style from the outside by employing his jab and push-kicks and having a really good sprawl. And even then you’re likely get by the thinnest of the margins, as did Rory MacDonald against Maia at UFC 170. Maia has always been vulnerable to striking from the outside and relies on shooting for the single-leg takedown from far off. If you have a good jab, you can easily neutralize his attempts to shoot for a single-leg by making him think about the jab every time he shoots.
My prediction is that Maia will likely outwork him, shoot for the takedown, and stop him in 2nd round with a submission. Maia has seen them all before, and unless you’re really good, you’re not beating him. Belal still needs a couple of signature victories, and in my opinion, those will come after his fight with Maia. Belal still has a few ways to go in terms of his development, but I believe that this is a good opportunity to get the time against such an elite competitor in the sport.
Regardless of how this plays out, one thing is for certain: Maia, despite never having won the UFC title, is one of the best grapplers ever to have competed for the UFC, and it would be a shame if he is never inducted in the hall of fame. There are many exciting fights on this card, but this is one that I will absolutely be watching to see this legend compete one last time in the UFC (until of course, he inevitably decides to follow his former opponents Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley in signing the contract to box Jake Paul and make an insane amount of money one last time).
